Sugar
Statistical surplus increases to 1.8 mln tonnes in 2018/19
World output to reduce by 4.5 mln tonnes
Lower production in a number of key producers including the EU, Brazil, Russia and Pakistan…
… but record or near record output in India and Thailand
World consumption to grow by 1.58% in 2018/19
The end of the surplus phase in 2019/20?
High stocks environment is far from over
Chinese currency devalues, pressuring Asian currencies
Brazilian Real weakens to 8-month low
ISO releases survey on domestic prices
Indian government raises Minimum Selling Price of sugar
Special Focus - Uncertainties surrounding the sugar/ethanol production mix in Centre-South Brazil for 2019/20
While last season demonstrated a “how low can you go” scenario this season’s mix is less clear
Commodity Prices
Brent Crude and WTI oil plunged mid-May, corn and wheat prices rally
Farm Aid package may stimulate soybean production
Fuel Ethanol
Global production to decline marginally in 2019, but outlook remains positive
Global consumption to rise sharply, as old crop availability in Brazil is used during the off-season
Increased commitment to ethanol is seen in India, Thailand and China
US E15 policy impact yet to be quantified
Bioplastics and Biochemicals
In 2018, bioplastics represented less than 1% of total plastics production
PLA production capacity expected to double by 2023
Cosun Biobased Products launches consumer product using sugar beet pulp
Cogeneration
In most countries, renewables are the lowest-cost source of power generation
Study evaluates potential for electricity production from bagasse in Southern Africa
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS offtake remains in decline, higher costs and higher prices for HFCS output
EU isoglucose production remains at a low level for a second year
Molasses
Higher offtake from domestic industries is an increasing feature of the molasses market
EU imports are marginally higher year-on-year, supply from India is increasing
WTO Update
WTO appellant body is set to become inoperable in December 2019
The entire operation of the dispute settlement branch is at risk
RTAs
African Continental Free Trade Agreement comes into force on May 30th
USMCA hit by suggestion of a US blanket duty on Mexican imports.
Negotiations around RCEP agreement focus on access to Indian market
i-iii Executive Brief 1 World Sugar Market 1 World Balance 2 Supply 2 Production 11 Brief(19)02 – Mid-term Review 12 Export Availability 13 Demand 14 Consumption 16 Imports Demand 18 Brief(19)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar 19 World Market Events and Prices 22 Currency Movements 24 Domestic Prices 26 Brief(19)04 – Sugar Policy Developments 27 Special Focus 27 Uncertainties surrounding the sugar/ethanol production mix in Centre-South Brazil for 2019/20 30 Commodity Prices 32 Fuel Ethanol 31 Overview 33 Production 35 Consumption 35 Trade 36 Prices 43 Bioplastics and Biochemicals 44 Cogeneration 46 Alternative Sweeteners 46 High Fructose Corn Syrup 49 Intensive Sweeteners 50 Molasses 54 WTO Update 55 Regional Trade Agreements 56 World Sugar Balance Estimates The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.