World Sugar Market
Deficit in 2021/22 reduced to 2.552 mln tonnes, from 3.852 mln tonnes in August
Final reconciliations pushed 2020/21 deficit to 2.021 mln tonnes from 1.454 mln tonnes
World consumption revised down to 173.025 mln tonnes in 2021/22, down 1.442 mln tonnes….
… following a lowering of 2020/21 consumption to 171.018 mln tonnes.
Global trade balance of 2021/22 sees 0.939 mln tonne surplus but with CS Brazil exports declining
Stock to use ratio revised down to 53.9 percent at the end of 2021/22
Market Price Update
Futures market prices steady since August, spreads in backwardation
White premium increased recently, but refiners still face high freight and futures-related costs
Energy prices surge while agriculture prices stabilise in Q3 2021
Brent crude prices rally to USD85/barrel
Corn prices ease, coffee prices rally
Domestic prices rise to record in Brazil
Domestic prices in India at multi-year highs ahead of festival season
The ISO continues to hold a neutral view on the market
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Global ethanol output in 2021 revised to 105.0 bln litres and set to rise to 109.0 bln litres in 2022
Consumption projected to recover to 101.3 bln litres in 2021, rising to 104.2 bln litres in 2022
US plants helped by higher demand and ethanol prices despite fall in RIN and by-product prices
Record ethanol prices in Brazil are not enough to sway mills to switch their focus away from sugar
Gasohol more competitive against hydrous ethanol means mills turn to anhydrous ethanol
Despite a recovery, global supply and demand in 2022 will not return to pre-pandemic levels
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production forecast to increase by 1.8 mln tonnes in 2021/22
Sustained divergence between rising sugar prices and firm but variable cane molasses prices
Molasses prices well supported by a balanced market
Record exports from India
Downside risk potential to world market molasses prices in 2022
Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2021 down against 2020 due to lower crop
India’s completed 2020/21 season bagasse-based electricity sales to grid rise 10%
Braskem to expand bioplastics production in southern Brazil unit by 30% to meet higher demand
Alternative Sweeteners
SWEEGEN to expand Brazzein production
Ingredion sees strong demand for allulose
US start-up BONUMOSE invests in new plant to produce tagatose and allulose
Beneo (Südzucker Group) argues isomaltulose should be excluded from US sugar labelling
Israel’s DouxMatok in new partnership to enhance marketing of Incredo Sugar
WTO Update
No consensus on draft negotiation text for agricultural trade
Members' continued divergences mean MC12 outcome won't be comprehensive
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
Technical hurdles continue to prevent trade under AfCFTA
ASEAN and EU resume talks; EU-MERCOSUR FTA opposed
RCEP scheduled to come into force on January 1st, 2022
Full implementation of the SACU-MERCOSUR FTA sought
South Korea and the Philippines agree new FTA
UK-New Zealand agree post Brexit trade deal
i-iii Executive Brief
1 World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief (21)06 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
22 Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
29 World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Production
Consumption
Trade
42 Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
47 Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
Low Calorie Sweeteners
52 WTO Update
53 Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
55 World Sugar Balance Estimates
The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.