Sugar
A massive 4.6 mln tonnes decrease in projected global surplus in 2018/19
World output to reduce by 2.2 mln tonnes
Lower production in Brazil, the EU, India, Pakistan, Russia and Thailand
Global use to grow by 1.65%
Ending stocks/consumption ratio to decrease
Mid-term review: a return to deficit in 2019/20?
New feature - Quarterly world sugar balances
World market prices hit bottom?
Brazilian Real strengthens, contributing to a world price rally
Mixed picture in domestic sugar markets
Special Focus - India’s Ethanol Programme: Renewed Impetus
Limited traction in in shifting production to alternative feedstocks in 2018/19
Commodity Prices
Oil volatility: 4-year highs followed by lows in November
Coffee prices recover after 12-year low
World Fuel Ethanol
Increased global production driven by US and Brazil
Brazil industry able to access increased domestic hydrous consumption
Expanded global ethanol trade seen as a necessity, US exports complete record 9 months
Distilling capacity in doubt for some national biofuel programmes
Bioplastics and Biochemicals
Thailand pushes for higher-value bio-products
Thai sugar export allocation could be halved in 5-years
Cogeneration
Brazil’s National Development Bank clears BRL300 loans to cane sector
Bagasse-based electricity sales to grid increase in Brazil and India
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS offtake remains in decline, producers benefitting from improved by-product values
EU isoglucose production fails to rise after quotas are lifted
Molasses
Low molasses prices remain a feature
EU imports expected to rise on lower beet production
WTO Update
WTO dispute settlement board is grinding to a halt
Multilateral trade arrangement continue to expand under WTO umbrella
RTAs
NAFTA becomes USMCA following recent agreement
EU-Brexit gets WTO angle on tariff rate quotas
Japan and China expand cooperation
Comesa negotiations on new CET rates commence
i-iii Executive Brief 1 World Sugar Market 1 World Balance 3 Brief(18)06 – Mid-term Review 4 Supply 4 Production 12 Export Availability 14 Demand 14 Consumption 15 Imports Demand 17 Brief(18)07 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar 19 World Market Events and Prices 22 Currency Movements 24 Domestic Markets and Prices 26 Brief(18)09 – Sugar Policy Developments 28 Special Focus 28 India’s Ethanol Programme: Renewed Impetus 30 Commodity Prices 32 Fuel Ethanol 32 Overview 34 Production 37 Consumption 39 Ethanol Trade 41 Prices 45 Bioplastics and Biochemicals 46 Cogeneration 47 Alternative Sweeteners 47 HFCS / Isoglucose 50 Intensive Sweeteners 51 Molasses 54 WTO Update 55 Regional Trade Agreements 56 World Sugar Balance Estimates The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.