This report has a changed format, separating trade aspects from production and consumption for sugar, fuel ethanol and co-products such as molasses
World Sugar Market
2020/21 deficit reduced to 1.454 mln tonnes from 3.142 mln tonnes in May
Production in 2020/21 revised higher as CS Brazil production has rapidly advanced
Consumption revised lower following new data provided by members
Global trade balance for remainder of 2020/21 shows an increased surplus as strong Brazil export availability exceeds weak port-refiner interest, due to low white premium and high costs
First detailed assessment of 2021/22 shows a deficit of 3.824 mln tonnes
Production in 2021/22 is estimated at 170.638 mln tonnes, up marginally from 2020/21 as higher beet sugar output offsets the early ending of the current CS Brazil harvest
Consumption is set to rise by 1.55% to 174.467 mln tonnes, but with no COVID-19 deductions
Stock to use ratio for 2020/21 revised up to 57.23% from 54.60% in May
Quarterly Market Price Review
Futures market prices held firm in June and July before leaping higher in August
Speculative market interest biased towards higher prices
Freight cost rises on higher fuel and time rates, increasing landed costs for importers
The ISO continues to hold a neutral view on the sugar market
Agricultural commodity prices ease after 10 months of rises
Brent crude prices ease to USD65/barrel
Corn and soybean prices fall, wheat prices rally
Nominal domestic prices rise to record in Brazil
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Global ethanol output in 2021 revised to 104.1 bln litres and set to rise to 110.9 bln litres in 2022
Consumption projected to recover to 101.6 bln litres in 2021, rising to 106.5 bln litres in 2022
US producers supported by record RIN prices, more than offsetting high corn prices.
Record ethanol prices in Brazil are not enough to sway mills to switch their focus away from sugar.
Gasohol competitiveness against hydrous ethanol means Brazilian mills turn to anhydrous ethanol
Despite a recovery, global supply and demand in 2022 will not return to pre-pandemic levels
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) up slightly in 2020/21
Growing divergence between sugar and cane molasses values
Molasses demand impacted by COVID-19 restrictions on meat processing industry and ethanol demand dynamics
India’s molasses exports reach 1.2 mln tonnes in first 7 months of 2020/21
Thailand’s molasses exports plummet and imports surge
US imports down in H1 2021 while EU imports rise on reduced local supplies
Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2021 so far down against 2020
India electricity sales to grid rise so far in 2021
Thailand gives the green light to PLA bioplastics production expansion
Alternative Sweeteners
Brazzein production to scale up
SweetGen’s Reb M given European Commission approval
Allulose/Erythritol in tight supply in the US
New sugar alternative – sugars from plant fibre
WTO Update
Draft negotiation text for agricultural trade published
Mandate to establish a fair and market-oriented trading system is still valid
Members' continued divergences mean MC12 outcome won't be comprehensive
Intensive text-based negotiation phase to start in September
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AfCFTA negotiations miss end-July deadline
Australia-UK deal would see significant access for Australian sugar
Japan ratifies Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
South Korea-ASEAN set to upgrade FTA
Thailand-EU to resume trade negotiations
i-iii Executive Brief
1 World Sugar Market
World Balance
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief (21)05 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
24 Market Price Update
Futures, Spreads and Arbitrage
Hedge Funds
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
31 World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Trade
43 Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
48 Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
Low Calorie Sweeteners
53 WTO Update
54 Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
56 World Sugar Balance Estimates