World Sugar Market
The 2022/23 balance swings to a surplus of 6.185 mln tonnes
Production increased to 182.142 mln tonnes, consumption to 175.957 mln tonnes
Global trade balance of 2022/23 sees larger surplus of 2.986 mln tonnes,
on excess availability in coming months
Market Price Update
Futures market prices decline in recent months, while white sugar futures remain in a range
Speculative long-side interest in sugar wains over recent months
Energy prices fall from all-time highs earlier this year
Agricultural commodity prices weaken reflecting improved supplies for some commodities
USD continues to strengthen against many other currencies
EU domestic prices rise to the highest level in eight years
US prices ease from but remain much higher than they were at the start of 2022
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Global ethanol output in 2023 projected at 111.1 bln litres, up from 109.1 bln litres in 2022
World consumption projected to rise to 106.6 bln litres in 2023, up from 104.5 bln litres
US production and consumption estimates lowered for 2023, as gasoline use set to decline
Uncertainty over the continuation of the Petrobras pricing policy clouds outlook in Brazil
India achieves a 10% ethanol blend mid-year and is set to increase to 12% in 2023
Co Product Markets
Global molasses production (excluding Brazil) forecast to rise slightly in 2022/23
Parity between sugar and cane molasses values after long divergence
Molasses prices to remain supported by tight export availability in 2023 with Russia unable to ship all of its beet molasses surplus
India to export less molasses as more product is required fpr ethanol production
Brazil’s bagasse-based cogeneration in 2022 down against 2021
In India, total bagasse-based energy generation this season just shy of record
TotalEnergies Corbion announces PLA sorting breakthrough
Braskem partners with SCG Chemicals to develop an ethanol-based bioplastics plant in Thailand
Alternative Sweeteners
No advance in global high fructose syrup production
US HFCS 2023 offtake to weaken slightly and no recovery in exports to Mexico
Corn wet millers negotiate higher prices for 2023
Allulose awaits safety green light in the EU
Rising yields from stevia plants, brings cost of stevia sweeteners close to parity with other HIS
Innovation in monkfruit sweeteners continues
Bonumose and BRAIN close to commercialising lower-cost tagatose
WTO Update
New WTO rules needed to govern farm trade as trade distortion and high levels of protection continue
Market access, special safeguard mechanism and transparency remain outstanding in negotiations
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
AANZFTA to further boost trade and investment
AfCFTA Initiative on Guided Trade kicks-off
Malaysia becomes 9th country to ratify CPTPP
EC looking to speed up EU-MERCOSUR trade deal
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India-UAE comes into force
Israel-Guatemala FTA signed
Executive Brief World Sugar Market World Balance Production Consumption Trade Exporters Importers Fundamental Outlook Brief(22)04 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar Market Price Update Futures, spreads and arbitrage Freight Commodities and Currencies Domestic Prices World Fuel Ethanol Market Overview Price Dynamics Carbon Markets Production Consumption Co Product Markets Molasses Bagasse Cogeneration Bioplastics & Biochemicals Alternative Sweeteners HFCS / Isoglucose Intensive Sweeteners WTO Update Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions World Sugar Balance Estimates The views expressed in this document are those of the ISO Secretariat. They do not necessarily represent the views of the ISO Members.