World Sugar Market
Latest revision of the 2024/25 balance reveals a larger global deficit of 5.466 mln tonnes
Consumption forecast marginally lower at 180.261 mln tonnes, production revised down to 174.795 mln tonnes
Trade volumes will decline in 2024/25, with import demand and export availability in balance
The global stock total is expected to decline sharply to 93.931 mln tonnes
Stock-to-use ratio lower at 52.11%, a 9-year low, while the alternative ISO ending-stock calculation points to a 13-year low.
Market Price Update
Average monthly ISA prices in May (up to the 9th) near 30-month low.
The ISO price view is neutral-to-bullish over the next three months
Oil prices volatile in Q1 2025; Brent crude down 18% since January
Corn futures at USD4.54/bushel, declining despite strong Brazilian biofuel demand
Cocoa and coffee maintain exceptional strength despite trade policy uncertainties
US Dollar weakened significantly as US tariffs impact currency markets
Major currencies strengthen against USD
Most major sugar markets saw price increases in Feb-Apr despite global raw sugar decline of 5%
World Fuel Ethanol Market
World ethanol production forecast at 120.7 bln litres in 2025, up 1.9% from 118.5 bln litres in 2024
Global consumption projected at 119.5 bln litres in 2025, up 1.8% from 117.4 bln litres in 2024
US production expected to reach 60.7 bln litres in 2025, a slight moderation from 2024 levels
Brazilian ethanol production is forecast at 34.48 bln litres in 2025, up from 33.68 bln litres in 2024
India's production projected to expand to 8.0 bln litres in 2025, supporting blending targets
Co Product Markets
Cane molasses prices fall further in the first months of 2025
Beet molasses prices move higher on prospects of reduction in EU production
India’s export tax and voluntary sanctions against Russian product still limit trade activity
Global exportable supplies likely to remain tight in 2025
EU likely to import more in 2025 on back of reduced domestic production
US to import less in 2025 as domestic livestock feed ingredients become more competitive
Brazil: Bagasse-based electricity: 21,081 GWh for 2024/25 cycle, down 0.6% year-over-year
India: Bagasse power output: 7,665 GWh for 2024/25, down 12% from previous cycle
Vietnam: Quang Ngai Sugar expanding An Khe cogeneration capacity from 95 MW to 135 MW
Australia finds microplastics from compostable bags that don't fully break down in real conditions
European Bioplastics advocates recycling instead of composting biodegradable plastics
Thailand creating sugar/cane bio hub through investment incentives, tax measures, and research networks
Alternative Sweeteners
US HFCS production down in 2025
Annual contracting sees price roll-over for 2025
US HFCS exports to Mexico to retreat
EU isoglucose production and use up in 2024/25
Acesulfame-K declared safe after EFSA re-evaluation
Mounting concerns over negative health impacts of aspartame
Cargill’s fermentation-based stevia sweetener approved in the EU
Antimicrobial properties attributed to saccharin
Sucralose may be contributing to global obesity epidemic
Gut health drinks with no added sugar a small but rapidly growing segment
WTO Update
WTO Secretariat closely monitoring and analysing new US tariff measures
New Chair for Committee on Agriculture takes up role
Innovative approaches needed to move agriculture negotiations forward
Persistent divergences in views on how to achieve a meaningful MC14 outcome on agriculture
RTAs and Sugar Provisions
EU-UAE launch formal FTA negotiations
India and the EU accelerate FTA negotiations while India clinches FTA with the UK
Indonesia and the EU FTA talks continue and Thailand-EU FTA expected by year-end
Korea-China-Japan reignite FTA talks
South Korea in FTA negotiations with Thailand, UK and Mexico
African countries seek AGOA renewal with US
New US-UK trade agreement
Executive Brief
World Sugar Market
World Balance
Brief(25)02 – Mid-term Review - The outlook for the 2025/26 season
Production
Consumption
Trade
Exporters
Importers
Fundamental Outlook
Brief(25)03 – Trade Balance for Raw and White Sugar
Market Price Update
Futures, spreads and arbitrage
Freight
Commodities and Currencies
Domestic Prices
World Fuel Ethanol Market
Overview
Price Dynamics
Carbon Markets
Production
Consumption
Co Product Markets
Molasses
Bagasse Cogeneration
Bioplastics & Biochemicals
Alternative Sweeteners
HFCS / Isoglucose
Intensive Sweeteners
WTO Update
Regional Trade Agreements and Sugar Provisions
World Sugar Balance Estimates